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May 1, 2023Liked by Zeke Hausfather, Andrew Dessler

thank you for taking on this task!

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Glad Zeke (and Andrew) have joined the climate scrum on Substack. I sure hope reporters and editors read this post before the flood of overheated headlines asserting the world has crossed into climate doom as the global average touches 1.5 when the next #ElNino comes atop CO2 heating. More on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Revkin/status/1653097497198227456

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So the models predict an El Nino with the index somewhere between zero and two … that's like predicting the weather tomorrow will be either warmer or colder.

And of course, as far as I know, not one of these models predicted that we'd get three years worth of La Nina conditions, but that colossal failure hasn't seemed to cool your ardor for these Tinkertoy™ models.

I just went to the ICI website. Their track record for predicting El Niños is abysmal. Often they don't even get the sign right for their 11-month-out predictions, much less the amplitude.

Do you not know this about the junk models, or do you simply not care?

Y'all are hilarious. All you've demonstrated are that the models aren't worth a bucket of warm spit but you'll push their lies without regards to consequences for either the world or your reputations.

w.

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This is a weather report, not an article about the climate.

It's an article about models that have proven again and again to underestimate felt climate impacts.

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Great article. You did miss out the Tonga volcano and the solar maximum, both of which add to temperature rise.

See https://therenwhere.substack.com/p/climate-change-triple-whammy

In the UK this has been the coldest spring in several years where I live :) That aside, late 2023 to the end of 2024 will be very interesting.

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